2020 Housing Forecast and Market Predictions

It’s that time of year when Windermere’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, dusts off his crystal ball and peers into the future to give us his predictions for the 2020 economy and housing market. 

Posted on December 11, 2019 at 9:16 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Bellevue, Bothell, Denise Perkins, Eastside, Helpful Home Tips, In the News, Kenmore, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snohomish, Snoqualmie, Uncategorized, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Gardner Report – Q3

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Washington State employment has softened slightly to an annual growth rate of 2%, which is still a respectable number compared to other West Coast states and the country as a whole. In all, I expect that Washington will continue to add jobs at a reasonable rate though it is clear that businesses are starting to feel the effects of the trade war with China and this is impacting hiring practices. The state unemployment rate was 4.6%, marginally higher than the 4.4% level of a year ago. My most recent economic forecast suggests that statewide job growth in 2019 will rise by 2.2%, with a total of 88,400 new jobs created.

HOME SALES

  • There were 22,685 home sales during the third quarter of 2019, representing a slight increase of 0.8% from the same period in 2018 and essentially at the same level as in the second quarter.
  • Listing activity — which rose substantially from the middle of last year — appears to have settled down. This is likely to slow sales as there is less choice in the market.
  • Compared to the third quarter of 2018, sales rose in five counties, remained static in one, and dropped in nine. The greatest growth was in Skagit and Clallam counties. Jefferson, Kitsap, and Cowlitz counties experienced significant declines.
  • The average number of homes for sale rose 11% between the second and third quarters. However, inventory is 14% lower than in the same quarter of 2018. In fact, no county contained in this report had more homes for sale in the third quarter than a year ago.

HOME PRICES

  • Home price growth in Western Washington notched a little higher in the third quarter, with average prices 4.2% higher than a year ago. The average sales price in Western Washington was $523,016. It is worth noting, though, that prices were down 3.3% compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Home prices were higher in every county except Island, though the decline there was very small.
  • When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Grays Harbor County, where home prices were up 22%. San Juan, Jefferson, and Cowlitz counties also saw double-digit price increases.
  • Affordability issues are driving buyers further out which is resulting in above-average price growth in outlying markets. I expect home prices to continue appreciating as we move through 2020, but the pace of growth will continue to slow.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped one day when compared to the third quarter of 2018.
  • Thurston County was the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 20 days to sell. There were six counties where the length of time it took to sell a home dropped compared to the same period a year ago. Market time rose in six counties, while two counties were unchanged.
  • Across the entire region, it took an average of 38 days to sell a home in the third quarter. This was down 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Market time remains below the long-term average across the region and this trend is likely to continue until more inventory comes to market, which I do not expect will happen until next spring.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. I am leaving the needle in the same position as the first and second quarters, as demand appears to still be strong.

The market continues to benefit from low mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rates is currently around 3.6% and is unlikely to rise significantly anytime soon. Even as borrowing costs remain very competitive, it’s clear buyers are not necessarily jumping at any home that comes on the market. Although it’s still a sellers’ market, buyers have become increasingly price-conscious which is reflected in slowing home price growth.

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com Blog.

Posted on October 31, 2019 at 6:16 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Bellevue, Bothell, Denise Perkins, Eastside, Fall, Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Kenmore, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snohomish, Snoqualmie, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

4 Reasons to Sell Your Home This Fall

4 Reasons to Sell Your Home This Fall 

  1. Buyer demand is still strong
  2. There is less competition now – supply and demand
  3. There will never be a better time to move up
  4. Its time to move on with your life

Watch this video to hear more about why I think you should sell.

 

 

Posted on October 17, 2019 at 5:20 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Bellevue, Bothell, Denise Perkins, Eastside, Fall, Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Kenmore, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snohomish, Snoqualmie, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A Recession Does Not Equal a Housing Crisis

No — the sky is not falling!  Signs may be pointing toward a recession but let’s look at some past stats re: home prices and appreciation.

  • There is plenty of talk in the media about a pending economic slowdown.
  • The good news is, home values actually increased in 3 of the last 5 U.S. recessions, and decreased by less than 2% in the 4th.
  • Many experts predict a potential recession is on the horizon. However, housing will not be the trigger, and home values will still continue to appreciate. It will not be a repeat of the crash in the 2008 housing market

Source: Keeping Current Matters.

Another really important thing to take into consideration is our area.  This infographic is national data.  Our area is still flourishing with employment, companies hiring and out of the area folks moving in.  Another great person to ask about this is Windermere’s own Matthew Gardener.

 

Posted on October 3, 2019 at 8:20 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Bellevue, Bothell, Denise Perkins, Eastside, In the News, Kenmore, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snohomish, Snoqualmie | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2nd Quarter of 2019 is complete!

This is a brief summary of the Quarterly Gardner Report.

Things are still seeing positive growth from a Real Estate perspective.

In Western Washington YOY price growth is 2.8% higher. When compared to 1st Quarter it’s 12%. County by County is a bit different – for King County we saw a -0.4% price drop. This speaks directly to the affordability in that area. Days on market is still relatively low (21 Days in King County) and if a home is priced and marketed well – it will attract attention and sell rapidly. One strong take away is that interest rates are still at an all time low – with inventory up this is a great time to buy. And for those needing to sell before you can buy contingent offers are a viable possibility again!

Posted on August 7, 2019 at 6:23 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Bellevue, Denise Perkins, Eastside, Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snoqualmie, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

It’s Seafair Ya’ll!

It’s Seafair ya’ll!  Starting in July and ending in Early August with the Hydroplane races on Lake Washington. This event has over 30 fun (and affordable) activities to participate in but also has a pretty interesting history. 

Seafair is one of our areas longest running community events. Starting back in the early 50’s – before our area had any Seahawks, Sonics or Mariners or even the Seattle Center  – the powers that be were looking for a way to generate tourism, national recognition and to promote the area being the “boating capital of the world.”   

Seafair was first held at Greenlake.  The 5,500 seat Auqa Theater was built (in 75 days) – and festival began August 11, 1950.  The event featured the Aqua Follies “swimusical”  including a diving show and synchronized swimming, boat races and amateur athletics.  The early event also included Seafair royalty, parades and a variety of community festivals!

Over the years the event has grown to include the famed Boeing Seafair Air Show with demonstrations from the US Navy Blue Angels (my favorite every year), Seafair Pirates, Torchlight Parade and of course the amazingly fun Home Street Bank Cup hydroplane boat races. 

Got a boat? Or know someone that does? Don’t miss the epic partying on thousands of boats tied to the Seafair Log BoomIt’s a 10 week long event – so be sure to find a way to participate!!

What’s your favorite part of this event?  And if you’re new to the area go find it and let me know!!  There are a few links in this post that will hopefully prove helpful, including Seafair Calendar of events, Best places to watch the Blue Angels (this NEVER gets old!), More history

Posted on July 31, 2019 at 5:58 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Denise Perkins, Eastside, Holidays, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Kids, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snoqualmie, Things to Do, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Cost of Waiting!

Interest rates are at a two year low. Who knew!

There have been so many predictions over the past several  years that rates were headed higher and higher and while they have fluctuated a bit – today it’s like free money! Our economy as well as the real estate market is unpredictable.  But one thing is for certain, if you are or were on the fence about buying – either for the first time, selling and getting a bigger house or even ready to downsize and get into your retirement home – now could be a great time to make that happen.  Most markets in our area are still great for sellers if the home is marketed and priced accordingly – and inventory is up (24.5% as of May) which means more for buyers to choose from.

Multiple offers are still the story again in some markets – but with more to choose from it’s doesn’t seem as frenetic.  So why does all this hub-bub matter when it comes to interest rates – well it really can effect what you can buy.  BUYING POWER is the answer – and with low interest rates you can afford more.  And in our area – that makes a big difference.   Which brings me to the information seen here – it’s a great depiction of what waiting, or what a changing interest rate can mean to you and your bottom line.

So when you’re ready to talk about finding your next community – let’s chat – I can help!

Posted on July 24, 2019 at 11:22 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Denise Perkins, Eastside, Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Market Stats, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snoqualmie, Uncategorized, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

What’s Happening in the Market?

Wanted to quick share what’s happening in the Market. It’s been ticking up every month since February and is gradually catching last years numbers after the 4th quarter dip of 2018.  Market times are down again and pairing that with sub 4% interest rates it is making the prospects of buying vs. renting very enticing! Sellers are now seeing increased traffic, but are also competing with additional homes for sale. Location, Location, Location is still the theme of todays market and the hotter marketplaces in June has been North Kirkland (Finn Hill), Mercer Island and Renton.

Click here to see the the stats in your area for June 2019

 

Posted on July 10, 2019 at 10:22 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Denise Perkins, Eastside, Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snoqualmie, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Celebrate Memorial Day Northwest Style

Let’s face it — we live in a pretty amazing area. There is no need to go elsewhere if you want to enjoy Memorial Day weekend.  It’s seems like the perfect time to stick around and have some LOCAL fun. And as a bonus — this weekend is supposed to be SUPER fabulous as far as being able to get some vitamin D is concerned.   We’ve looked around some of our most favorite communities so you can find the fun — no mater where you live.  Don’t forget to let us know what your favorite events are.  Especially if there is something everyone else should know about.  Post some pictures on IG or FB and be sure to Tag me!!

Northwest Folklife Festival & Kindiependent Showcase

The 48th Annual Northwest Folklife Festival & Kindiependent Showcase is one of the largest folk festivals in the country and fun for the whole family. With hands on activities for the kids, 26 different stages, back to back performances and dancing you will have a hard time choosing what to do first. Oh! and there will be food so make sure you are hungry!

https://www.nwfolklife.org/festival/

Memorial Day Weekend Train Rides

All Aboard! With what looks like a promising weather weekend ahead take a scenic train ride through the Cascade foothills of the Upper Snoqualmie Valley to celebrate Memorial Day. This special 75-minute train ride is in addition to the railroad’s usual weekend train schedule and takes you to the top of Snoqualmie Falls. As a bonus, the Northwest Railway Museum will be offering $5 round-trip train fare Sat.-Mon. to members of the military, including active duty, guard, reserve and retired and their dependent family members, with current military ID.

https://www.trainmuseum.org/

Remlinger Farms

Remlinger Farms is now open on Saturdays and Sundays. Take a ride the half-sized steam train along the Tolt River, pet the farm animals (think: goats, horses, piggies, cows, alpaca, sheep, bunnies, donkeys) or take a pony ride and jump in the hay maze, spin on the mini roller coaster or “fly” on the pumpkins. Plus, go ’round and ’round in the pedal cars and enjoy a day full day of farm fun.

https://remlingerfarms.com/

Memorial Day Weekend Run

Put on your running shoes and bring the family to the Memorial Day Weekend run. You can choose a 5K, 10K or 15K run/walk as well as a 1 mile Memorial mile and there is a Kid’s Dash! The 400-meter Kid’s Dash (for ages 2-10) will start 15 minutes before race time, giving you the perfect chance to run with your kiddo and get warmed up before your race.

Sat., May 25 at 10 a.m. Seattle. $3 to $32. Registration required. Ages 2 & older.

http://magnusonseries.org/

Tankfest Northwest

Get ready for the noise at Tankfest Northwest this Memorial Day Weekend. This family event will showcase military vehicle demonstrations, remote control tanks and a scavenger hunt, plus face painting, a bouncy house and food from some of our region’s top food trucks.

https://flyingheritage.org/Visit/Events/Tankfest-Northwest.aspx

Memorial Day Ceremony

This 3 day event is a great way to teach your kids the importance of Memorial Day. Enjoy this annual ceremony held at The Museum of Flight. The Museum will honor military service with patriotic music from The Boeing Employees Concert Band, followed by a ceremony with local officials and US Military personnel. And! All veterans and active US military personnel will receive free admission with ID.

http://www.museumofflight.org/News/1884/memorial-day-weekend-events-at-the-museum-of-flight

 

Posted on May 23, 2019 at 6:01 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Denise Perkins, Eastside, Holidays, In the News, Kids, North Kirkland, Redmond, Snoqualmie, Things to Do, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

19 miles of never ending fun – in your backyard

Did you know May is National Bike month? Yes that’s right,  it’s time to dust off the wheels and enjoy those sunny day’s — because we all know, sometimes in Spring they are few and far between.  One of the best places to ride in our area is the Burke Gilman Trail — enjoyed by runners, walkers, bikers, young, and younger.  Extending from Seattle to Kenmore –with MANY amazing spots along the way. Much of the trail is wide and flat with great spots to stop for lunch and views of our beautiful region. With so many access points along the trail you will usually be able to find a good spot to start and will always find a new view.  If you’re really ambitious you can always just ride the whole thing from start to finish, 19 miles in total! This is a great trail for the whole family, you will not be disappointed.

https://www.seattle.gov/parks/find/parks/burke-gilman-trail

Miri’s at Golden Gardens
Begin your journey at the sandy beaches of Golden Gardens that lie at one end of the trail. If you don’t pack a lunch Miri’s specializes in local, organic breakfast and lunch goodness. Make sure to try the poffertjes, Tiny Dutch pancakes! Yum! Open Thurs.-Sun. and Mon.-Sun. starting in mid-June.
8498 Seaview Pl. N.W.
Seattle, WA 98117
360-317-8530
mirisseattle.com

The Lockspot Cafe
The Lockspot is located at the entrance of the Ballard Locks, so if you are hungry or thirsty be sure to stop. From The Café the kiddos will be intrigued as they watch the boats go through the locks. Maybe Mom can actually eat her fish sandwich while it is still hot, one can only hope! With a menu for your little riders, and a beautiful patio, make sure this is marked on your map as a must see.
3005 N.W. 54th St
Seattle, WA 98107
206-789-4865
facebook.com/TheLockspotCafe

Hale’s Ales
Hale’s Ales and the Burke-Gilman share the same corner of the path in Fremont. Order some Mexican food from El Camión and check out the live event at Hale’s, make sure to catch The I Hate Children Children’s Show, a very funny magic show starring… kids!

4301 Leary Way N.W.
Seattle, WA 98107
206-782-0737
halesbrewery.com

Recycled Cycles
Whatever you may need bike related Recycled Cycles will have what you need. Have you heard of a Trail-a-Bike? It is hitched to an adults bike and the kiddo gets to pedal along while still safely attached to your bike. With 25 years of dedication and knowledge Recycled Cycles is a great place for all your cycling needs including, air, parts, new and used bikes.
1007 N.E. Boat St
Seattle, WA 98105
206-547-4491
recycledcycles.com

Agua Verde Cafe & Paddle Club
Switch it up and add some water fun to your cycling journey. Agua Verde rents stand-up paddleboards and kayaks for the whole family. It is also a great place to grab tacos, nachos, and margaritas… Oh my!
1307 NE Boat St
Seattle, WA 98105
206-545-8570 (ext. 2)
aguaverde.com

Great State Burger & Burke Gilman Brewing Company
2 in! Burgers and Beer at 1 stop! Are you tired yet? Grab a burger, fries from Great State Burger and a NW IPA from the recently opened Burke Gilmand Brewing Company, which opened July of 2018. No worries… they are kid and dog friendly.
And if you prefer wine over beer and Burrata Tartin instead a burger try Erickson’s Bistro Shirlee just opened in the same complex. bistroshirlee.com

Great State Burger
3600 N.E. 45th St.
Seattle, WA 98105
206-775-8990
greatstateburger.com

Burke Gilman Brewing Company
3626 N.E. 45th St.
Seattle, WA 98105
206-268-0220
burkegilmanbrewing.com

 

Where are you going when you hit the Burke Gilman trail?  Any great places to be sure to see, play, restaurants to enjoy?  Let us know!

Posted on May 16, 2019 at 1:23 am
Denise Perkins | Category: Denise Perkins, Eastside, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Kids, North Kirkland, Redmond, Resaurants, Things to Do, Woodinville | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,